By Christian E. Weller
The labor market has started to show signs of a slowdown amid President Donald Trump’s economic policy chaos—especially his on-again, off-again tariffs, mass deportations, and ad hoc cuts to the federal government, among other policies. The accumulation of data over the past few days and weeks shows that the labor market slowdown continued into September. While it is clear that the labor market remained weak last month, it is difficult to gauge exactly how weak because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not release its monthly jobs report amid the government shutdown, resulting in a lack of high-quality government data.
The private sector, specifically, may have lost jobs in September. Payroll processing firm ADP reported that private sector payrolls dropped by 32,000 jobs in September. Over time, the ADP data, which use BLS data as weights to match the composition across industries, appear to be in line with the private sector employment data from the BLS, although they can differ on a month-to-month basis.
A comparison between the two data sources for the six months from March to August 2025 illustrates this point: The ADP data show a total gain of 316,000 private sector jobs and the BLS payroll survey data show a gain of 404,000 jobs during this period. Moreover, both data sources show a noticeable slowdown from the first three months of this period—March to May 2025—to the second three-month period of June to August 2025. -- READ MORE