ASIAN WISCONZINE ONLINE



june 2026 ISSUE



State-by-State Increases in Gas Prices Since Trump’s War on Iran



By Emily Gee



(Left)

Gas prices are displayed at an Exxon Mobil gas station near the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on March 31, 2026. (Getty/Andrew Harnik)

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THIS ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED BY THE CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS.


Americans around the country have watched gas prices soar since the Trump administration began its war with Iran in late February. Two weeks after the announcement of a tenuous ceasefire agreement, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively at a standstill, oil prices remain elevated, and Americans are paying about 35 percent more for gas than they were before the conflict. According to polling conducted earlier this month by the Pew Research Center, more than two-thirds (69 percent) of Americans are concerned about high gas prices as a result of the U.S. military attacks on Iran.



While U.S. retail gas prices typically rise and fall seasonally due to changes in demand and the transition between winter and summer fuel mixes, the magnitude of the price shock consumers are currently experiencing exceeds those normal fluctuations. (see Figure 1) This year’s price spike generated the largest monthly increase in the gas price index since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking in 1967, sending prices to their highest levels since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.


FIGURE 1









As of April 22, 2026, the national average was $4.02 per gallon, with prices highest in California ($5.83) and lowest in Oklahoma ($3.38), according to state average gas price data from AAA. (see Table 1) Prices tend to be lower in regions closer to sources of supply—such as the Gulf Coast, home to about half of U.S. refining capacity—and also reflect variation in reformulation requirements and gas taxes. Comparing current prices to those on February 27, the day before the war began, shows that the largest relative increases in gas prices have been in Utah (51.7 percent), Idaho (45.7 percent), Tennessee (45.6 percent), Mississippi (45.4 percent), and Kentucky (45 percent).



TABLE 1









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Average gas prices have risen across all states Difference in regular gas price per gallon and monthly cost today (April 22) versus before the war (February 27)



Soaring gas prices are increasing the squeeze on household budgets at a time when Americans already identify the costs of living among their top concerns. Based on average annual fuel use statistics from the U.S. Department of Energy, the national average $1.04 price increase since the Iran war began translates to about $38 more in monthly gas costs for a car and $55 more for a light truck—a category that includes pickup trucks and SUVs. For the lowest-income quintile of households, the combination of higher gas prices and the Big Beautiful Bill’s deep cuts to Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits is projected to dampen real income growth this year, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis from earlier this week.


Even if a resolution to the conflict enables oil prices to fall, high gas prices tend to be sticky, meaning consumers will be waiting longer to see relief. Moreover, with transit through the Strait of Hormuz still risky, oil prices are likely to remain high—particularly as oil production facilities across the Middle East have been damaged by the war and insurance premiums for shipping through the strait have risen. As of April 22, Brent crude exceeded $100 per barrel, 40 percent above its pre-war price, and energy analysts project that prices will remain elevated through late this year. (see Table 2) For example, earlier this month Goldman Sachs projected that if the strait reopened, Brent would settle at $80 per barrel by the end of this year—about 10 percent above its pre-war level.


TABLE 2





Notes: April 22 prices were collected before markets closed. Prices for gasoline and diesel reflect U.S. averages, while jet fuel is the average for Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York. The February 27 and April 22 prices for urea represent the latest data available on February 26 and April 20, respectively, while the April 22 prices for jet fuel and natural gas represent the latest data available on April 21.
Source: MarketWatch, “Crude Oil Continuous Contract” (last accessed April 2026) MarketWatch, “Brent Crude Oil Continuous Contract” (last accessed April 2026) AAA, “National Average Gas Prices” (last accessed April 2026) Airlines for America, “Daily Jet Fuel Spot Prices” (last accessed April 2026) MarketWatch, “Heating Oil Continuous Contract” (last accessed April 2026) TradingView, “Urea (Granular) FOB US Gulf Futures” (last accessed April 2026) TradingView, “Dutch TTF Natural Gas Calendar Month Futures” (last accessed April 2026).Table: Center for American Progress--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The Trump administration’s choice to wage war on Iran has caused enormous loss, costing military and civilian lives, humanitarian suffering, and far-reaching economic repercussions. The war has also cost taxpayers an estimated $33 billion and deeply diminished America’s standing in the world. High prices at the gas pump are an unavoidable, everyday reminder to Americans that the damaging consequences will linger long after the war’s end.


The author thanks Kyle Ross, Jared Bernstein, and Mimla Wardak for their contributions.


Emily Gee is Senior Vice President, Economic Policy Senior Fellow, Health Policy.