ASIAN WISCONZINE ONLINE



JULY 2025 ISSUE



The CBO Confirms the Devastating Harms of House Republicans’ One Big ‘Beautiful’ Bill Act



By Colin Seeberger, Andrea Ducas, & Lily Roberts



(LEFT): A view of the sunset at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., March 4, 2025. (Getty/Win McNamee)

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This article was published by the center for american progrESS


June 6 -- Last month, House Republicans passed H.R. 1: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This bill would make historic cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) while terminating clean energy tax credits that have both lowered energy costs for the American people and created hundreds of thousands of good-paying American jobs. This would be done solely to give the wealthiest Americans a new massive tax break. In the absence of a complete score by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) ahead of the vote, the Center for American Progress released state- and congressional-district-level estimates of health insurance coverage losses individuals at risk of losing some or all SNAP benefits and jobs—both operational and construction—at risk by eliminating the clean energy tax credits.
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Specifically, the CBO found that the House-passed bill, when coupled with proposed Trump administration changes to the Affordable Care Act, would lead to 16 million people losing coverage by 2034.
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New projections released this week by the CBO show that the devastating harms of the House Republican plan are even larger than presented in CAP’s previous estimates. Specifically, the CBO found that the House-passed bill, when coupled with proposed Trump administration changes to the Affordable Care Act, would lead to 16 million people losing coverage by 2034. This article includes updated state- and congressional-district-level estimates for how the bill would reduce Americans’ access to health coverage and food assistance as well as put jobs at risk by eliminating clean energy tax credits.
Estimated number of losses in health care coverage, people put at risk for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefit cuts, and jobs at risk, by state












As consideration of the One Big Beautiful Bill progresses to the Senate, these estimates confirm the bill would cause devastating consequences in every region of the United States in order to give the very top earners more tax giveaways. Millions of newly uninsured, low-income Americans would be at risk of financial catastrophe from a health emergency, while many of these same individuals could also see their food assistance cut or eliminated in full. And the bill would put 680,000 jobs at risk—largely in states President Donald Trump won in the 2024 election—while raising energy costs for families. Senators must reject this deeply unpopular legislation to avoid damaging the economy, hurting the most vulnerable, and increasing costs on families already suffering from high prices caused by the president’s tariffs.


Methodology


To estimate health insurance coverage losses by congressional district, the authors created proportional weights for each congressional district’s share of the state’s Medicaid and ACA population using KFF 2024 enrollment data. To account for states without Medicaid expansion, the authors used a weight equal to each congressional district’s proportion of the state’s total population from the Missouri Census Data Center, consistent with prior KFF analysis. Then the authors applied that weight to KFF state coverage loss estimates of the House-passed One Big, Beautiful Bill Act and changes based on the loss of enhanced ACA marketplace tax credits to estimate coverage losses by congressional district. Total estimated coverage losses were then calculated by combining estimated losses from cuts to Medicaid and from expiring ACA tax credits.


The estimate for the impact of expanded paperwork requirements on SNAP benefits come from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ analysis, which can be accessed here and here, of fiscal year 2022 SNAP quality control data and American Community Survey data for 2019-2023. The number of jobs at risk if IRA clean energy tax credits are eliminated was calculated using the spreadsheets “Clean Investment Monitor 2025 Q1 Outstanding Spending by State with Jobs” and “Clean Investment Monitor 2025 Q1 Outstanding Spending by CD with Jobs” downloaded from page 10 of the Clean Investment Monitor: Q1 Update from Rhodium Group and MIT CEEPR. The total of “Outstanding Operational Jobs” and “Outstanding Construction Jobs” was 686,003.


The authors would like to thank Natalie Baker and Jamie Friedman for their fact-checking assistance.


Colin Seeberger, is Senior Adviser, Communications

Andrea Ducas is Vice President, Health Policy

Lily Roberts is Managing Director, Inclusive Growth