ASIAN WISCONZINE ONLINE
august 2024 ISSUE
Shaping NATO’s Future: 5 Key Priorities for Washington to Build on After the 75th NATO Summit
By Robert Benson
(LEFT): Heads of state pose for a group photo during the NATO 75th anniversary celebratory event at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium in Washington, D.C., on July 9, 2024. (Getty/Kevin Dietsch)
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The 75th NATO Summit—which took place this week in Washington, D.C.—marked an important milestone for the alliance. As leaders gathered to commemorate 75 years of collective defense and strategic cooperation, the summit also served as a critical opportunity for addressing contemporary security challenges and for shaping the future of the alliance. Perhaps at no point since its founding in 1949, and certainly not since the end of the Cold War, has NATO been so comprehensively tested. Given the rapidly devolving global security landscape in Europe and the Middle East, along with rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific basin, it is imperative for Washington to build on key summit outcomes.
This column outlines five priorities that Washington must build on following the summit.
1. Address the Ukraine membership question: Pave a path to membership
NATO should unambiguously invite Ukraine to join the alliance and clarify a timeline for its accession. While membership will not be immediate, initiating this process would strengthen NATO-Ukraine cooperation and signal robust support for Kyiv amid its ongoing war against Russian aggression. Currently, NATO has not set a specific timeline for Ukraine’s membership but has removed the requirement for a membership action plan (MAP), which simplifies the path once conditions are met. Practically, membership should include a concrete timeline for Ukraine to aspire to, a stark departure from last year’s Vilnius summit, where the final communiqué was more of a word salad than a clear statement of intent. Ultimately, NATO must work to realize the long-term commitment made to Ukraine this week at Washington by clearly articulating a path to ascension—an opportunity that was regrettably not taken in the final communiqué—and support Ukraine in its efforts to meet these conditions.
For example, NATO could establish specific benchmarks for Ukraine to meet, such as military reforms, anti-corruption measures, and adherence to democratic principles—similar to the EU accession process launched by the commission earlier this year. NATO could phase Ukrainian integration into the alliance command and control structure, starting with enhanced military training and joint exercises on NATO soil and progressing to greater political and security cooperation. By setting well-defined, attainable goals, NATO can provide Ukraine with a clearer path to membership.
2. Strengthen Eastern Europe’s defenses: Reinforce NATO’s vulnerable eastern flank
Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine exemplifies the persistent threat Russia poses to the alliance, and bolstering NATO’s eastern defenses should be a top priority. Leaders attending the summit emphasized the need to enhance the military capabilities and readiness of Eastern European members. Yet more can be done. This includes doubling the deployment of NATO forces in the region, which currently stand at about 40,000 upgrading member state infrastructure including vital rail and road links ensuring rapid response capabilities and preparing to respond to any future Russian aggression.
To achieve this, NATO must focus on several key areas. First, NATO should continue to expand its multinational battlegroups from battalion-size to brigade-size units to provide the alliance with a stronger, much more agile defense posture. Commitments at the 2022 Madrid and 2023 Vilnius summits, and subsequent forward deployment of NATO battlegroups, demonstrate the alliance’s readiness to quickly scale up these forces where necessary. For its part, the United States has already shown its ability to rapidly reinforce existing NATO assets in Poland, highlighting the importance of pre-positioned equipment and enhanced command and control systems. Washington should build on existing summit work to further reinforce its eastern flank partners and help integrate air and missile defense systems in the region. Enhancing air and missile defense capabilities is crucial for protecting NATO members from aerial threats such as ballistic missiles and aircraft incursions, a grueling daily reality for Ukrainians.
The commitment this week to provide Ukraine with four Patriot anti-missile systems is a good start, but more can and must be done. The alliance should immediately expand its air defense network to cover Western Ukraine, as Russian missiles continue to terrorize civilians, including, most recently, an attack on a children’s hospital. This would help free up scarce Ukrainian resources to protect major front-line cities such as Kharkiv and Odesa. NATO radar systems routinely detect Russian missiles targeting Ukraine, with trajectories sometimes crossing NATO territory. Taking steps to protect the skies over Western Ukraine is not an escalation, but rather an urgently needed defensive measure.
3. Increase ally defense spending and burden sharing: Build resilience through mutual investment
For NATO to effectively respond to current and future threats, all member states must meet their defense spending commitments. Washington has found successes advocating for increased defense budgets across the alliance, prodding members to contribute at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defense, if not higher. It must press on with this advocacy to ensure that NATO has the necessary resources to enhance its military capabilities and sustain long-term operational readiness.
While NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that 23 of NATO’s 32 member states are on track to meet their spending commitments, a deeper cultural change within the alliance is still needed. European NATO allies should embrace the issuance of common defense bonds through the European Union, a mechanism that would provide critical funding for Ukraine. Additionally, they must urgently prioritize troop recruitment to contribute directly to a NATO allied response force. These changes are not only essential to counteract political forces pushing for U.S. retrenchment, but investing in mutual defense now will also strengthen the alliance’s military capabilities and foster greater political cohesion.
4. Build out engagement in the Indo-Pacific region: Forge an alliance with global reach
The Indo-Pacific region has become increasingly important to international security. Allies were right to prioritize enhancing NATO’s engagement in this area to address challenges posed by China’s growing military assertiveness. NATO must continue to strengthen partnerships with key regional players, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, and increase its presence in regional security forums, including the Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity and Shangri-La Dialogue. By doing so, NATO can help project global stability and support a rules-based order where it is being challenged in the Indo-Pacific—a charge that Secretary General Stoltenberg called central to NATO’s mission.
NATO missed an opportunity to use the summit to announce an Indo-Pacific liaison office in Tokyo. Such an office would facilitate coordination, improve response capabilities through joint exercises and critical information sharing, expand military training to enhance interoperability, and bolster maritime security. Washington should continue to urge NATO to enhance its existing individually tailored partnership programs (ITPPs). These bilateral agreements serve as a road map for NATO partner country cooperation. ITPPs should include specific milestones for each Indo-Pacific partner—Japan, South Korea, and Australia—and establish a new program with New Zealand. By implementing these strategies, NATO can enhance its strategic reach and contribute to the stability of the whole Indo-Pacific region.
5. Enhance cybersecurity and advanced technologies: Adapt to asymmetric threats
Advances in battlefield technology continue to transform modern warfare, and NATO must adapt to remain effective. Washington should continue to lead efforts to integrate cutting-edge technologies such as unmanned vehicles, artificial intelligence (AI), and low-Earth-orbit satellites—all used extensively in Ukraine—into NATO’s defense architecture. These technologies will improve intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and operational efficiency, ensuring that NATO can maintain its strategic edge while learning critical lessons from the ongoing war against Ukraine. Here, it is important for NATO to lead by example and fully implement its ethical framework for the use of AI, including by holding member states accountable to AI governance standards.
As cyberthreats become more sophisticated, NATO must invest in a compressive cyber defense strategy—a task allies committed to at the 2023 Vilnius summit and recommitted to at Washington. This should involve collaborating with private sector experts to strengthen civilian-military cooperation, establish additional cybersecurity defense hubs, and foster greater cooperation with the European Union’s cyber resilience agenda. By implementing these strategies, NATO can protect its critical infrastructure and maintain secure communications during times of crisis—a pressing need amid a slew of Russian sabotage operations against member state defense capabilities. Digital threats now encompass not only direct attacks on infrastructure but also attempts to meddle in democratic processes, including elections. By staying ahead of these challenges, NATO can ensure the security and stability of its member states in an increasingly asymmetric threat landscape.
Conclusion
The 75th NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., has not just been a celebration of past achievements but a crucial moment for charting the future of the alliance. By building on these five priorities—proffering a concrete timeline for Ukrainian membership, strengthening eastern defenses, prioritizing alliance burden sharing, building out engagement with the Indo-Pacific, and enhancing cybersecurity—Washington can help ensure that the 2024 NATO summit sets the foundation for future success.
Robert Benson is Senior Policy Analyst
This column outlines five priorities that Washington must build on following the summit.
1. Address the Ukraine membership question: Pave a path to membership
NATO should unambiguously invite Ukraine to join the alliance and clarify a timeline for its accession. While membership will not be immediate, initiating this process would strengthen NATO-Ukraine cooperation and signal robust support for Kyiv amid its ongoing war against Russian aggression. Currently, NATO has not set a specific timeline for Ukraine’s membership but has removed the requirement for a membership action plan (MAP), which simplifies the path once conditions are met. Practically, membership should include a concrete timeline for Ukraine to aspire to, a stark departure from last year’s Vilnius summit, where the final communiqué was more of a word salad than a clear statement of intent. Ultimately, NATO must work to realize the long-term commitment made to Ukraine this week at Washington by clearly articulating a path to ascension—an opportunity that was regrettably not taken in the final communiqué—and support Ukraine in its efforts to meet these conditions.
For example, NATO could establish specific benchmarks for Ukraine to meet, such as military reforms, anti-corruption measures, and adherence to democratic principles—similar to the EU accession process launched by the commission earlier this year. NATO could phase Ukrainian integration into the alliance command and control structure, starting with enhanced military training and joint exercises on NATO soil and progressing to greater political and security cooperation. By setting well-defined, attainable goals, NATO can provide Ukraine with a clearer path to membership.
2. Strengthen Eastern Europe’s defenses: Reinforce NATO’s vulnerable eastern flank
Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine exemplifies the persistent threat Russia poses to the alliance, and bolstering NATO’s eastern defenses should be a top priority. Leaders attending the summit emphasized the need to enhance the military capabilities and readiness of Eastern European members. Yet more can be done. This includes doubling the deployment of NATO forces in the region, which currently stand at about 40,000 upgrading member state infrastructure including vital rail and road links ensuring rapid response capabilities and preparing to respond to any future Russian aggression.
To achieve this, NATO must focus on several key areas. First, NATO should continue to expand its multinational battlegroups from battalion-size to brigade-size units to provide the alliance with a stronger, much more agile defense posture. Commitments at the 2022 Madrid and 2023 Vilnius summits, and subsequent forward deployment of NATO battlegroups, demonstrate the alliance’s readiness to quickly scale up these forces where necessary. For its part, the United States has already shown its ability to rapidly reinforce existing NATO assets in Poland, highlighting the importance of pre-positioned equipment and enhanced command and control systems. Washington should build on existing summit work to further reinforce its eastern flank partners and help integrate air and missile defense systems in the region. Enhancing air and missile defense capabilities is crucial for protecting NATO members from aerial threats such as ballistic missiles and aircraft incursions, a grueling daily reality for Ukrainians.
The commitment this week to provide Ukraine with four Patriot anti-missile systems is a good start, but more can and must be done. The alliance should immediately expand its air defense network to cover Western Ukraine, as Russian missiles continue to terrorize civilians, including, most recently, an attack on a children’s hospital. This would help free up scarce Ukrainian resources to protect major front-line cities such as Kharkiv and Odesa. NATO radar systems routinely detect Russian missiles targeting Ukraine, with trajectories sometimes crossing NATO territory. Taking steps to protect the skies over Western Ukraine is not an escalation, but rather an urgently needed defensive measure.
3. Increase ally defense spending and burden sharing: Build resilience through mutual investment
For NATO to effectively respond to current and future threats, all member states must meet their defense spending commitments. Washington has found successes advocating for increased defense budgets across the alliance, prodding members to contribute at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defense, if not higher. It must press on with this advocacy to ensure that NATO has the necessary resources to enhance its military capabilities and sustain long-term operational readiness.
While NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that 23 of NATO’s 32 member states are on track to meet their spending commitments, a deeper cultural change within the alliance is still needed. European NATO allies should embrace the issuance of common defense bonds through the European Union, a mechanism that would provide critical funding for Ukraine. Additionally, they must urgently prioritize troop recruitment to contribute directly to a NATO allied response force. These changes are not only essential to counteract political forces pushing for U.S. retrenchment, but investing in mutual defense now will also strengthen the alliance’s military capabilities and foster greater political cohesion.
4. Build out engagement in the Indo-Pacific region: Forge an alliance with global reach
The Indo-Pacific region has become increasingly important to international security. Allies were right to prioritize enhancing NATO’s engagement in this area to address challenges posed by China’s growing military assertiveness. NATO must continue to strengthen partnerships with key regional players, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, and increase its presence in regional security forums, including the Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity and Shangri-La Dialogue. By doing so, NATO can help project global stability and support a rules-based order where it is being challenged in the Indo-Pacific—a charge that Secretary General Stoltenberg called central to NATO’s mission.
NATO missed an opportunity to use the summit to announce an Indo-Pacific liaison office in Tokyo. Such an office would facilitate coordination, improve response capabilities through joint exercises and critical information sharing, expand military training to enhance interoperability, and bolster maritime security. Washington should continue to urge NATO to enhance its existing individually tailored partnership programs (ITPPs). These bilateral agreements serve as a road map for NATO partner country cooperation. ITPPs should include specific milestones for each Indo-Pacific partner—Japan, South Korea, and Australia—and establish a new program with New Zealand. By implementing these strategies, NATO can enhance its strategic reach and contribute to the stability of the whole Indo-Pacific region.
5. Enhance cybersecurity and advanced technologies: Adapt to asymmetric threats
Advances in battlefield technology continue to transform modern warfare, and NATO must adapt to remain effective. Washington should continue to lead efforts to integrate cutting-edge technologies such as unmanned vehicles, artificial intelligence (AI), and low-Earth-orbit satellites—all used extensively in Ukraine—into NATO’s defense architecture. These technologies will improve intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and operational efficiency, ensuring that NATO can maintain its strategic edge while learning critical lessons from the ongoing war against Ukraine. Here, it is important for NATO to lead by example and fully implement its ethical framework for the use of AI, including by holding member states accountable to AI governance standards.
As cyberthreats become more sophisticated, NATO must invest in a compressive cyber defense strategy—a task allies committed to at the 2023 Vilnius summit and recommitted to at Washington. This should involve collaborating with private sector experts to strengthen civilian-military cooperation, establish additional cybersecurity defense hubs, and foster greater cooperation with the European Union’s cyber resilience agenda. By implementing these strategies, NATO can protect its critical infrastructure and maintain secure communications during times of crisis—a pressing need amid a slew of Russian sabotage operations against member state defense capabilities. Digital threats now encompass not only direct attacks on infrastructure but also attempts to meddle in democratic processes, including elections. By staying ahead of these challenges, NATO can ensure the security and stability of its member states in an increasingly asymmetric threat landscape.
Conclusion
The 75th NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., has not just been a celebration of past achievements but a crucial moment for charting the future of the alliance. By building on these five priorities—proffering a concrete timeline for Ukrainian membership, strengthening eastern defenses, prioritizing alliance burden sharing, building out engagement with the Indo-Pacific, and enhancing cybersecurity—Washington can help ensure that the 2024 NATO summit sets the foundation for future success.
Robert Benson is Senior Policy Analyst